All this comes amid what #Trump's critics see as signs of democratic backsliding at home that have raised concerns abroad. These include verbal attacks [& more] on #judges, a pressure campaign against #universities & the transfer of migrants to a notorious #ElSalvador prison as part of a broader #deportation drive.
#Trump's second-term "America First" agenda has alienated friends & emboldened adversaries while raising questions about how far he is prepared to go. His actions, coupled with that #uncertainty, have so unnerved some governments that they are responding in ways that could be difficult to undo, even if a more traditional US president is elected in 2028.
#Trump has launched an unprecedented #global #tariff war & slashed #US foreign #aid. He has disparaged #NATO #allies & embraced #Russia's narrative about its invasion of #Ukraine. And he has spoken about annexing #Greenland, retaking the #PanamaCanal & making #Canada the 51st state.
[and that’s before we talk about his domestic policies]
#Trump's first 100 days: The ’America First’ president is overturning the world order
In the chaotic first 100 days since Trump returned to office, he has waged an often unpredictable campaign that has upended parts of the #RulesBasedWorldOrder that Washington helped build from the ashes of WWII.
#AmericanAutocracy #NewWorldOrder #Chaos #Uncertainty #economy #geopolitics #NationalSecurity #InfoSec #Government #democracy #Constitution #Law #power
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-first-100-days-america-first-president-is-overturning-world-order-2025-04-27/
(a pivotal chart)
The driver? A sharp rise in US policy #uncertainty has shaken investor confidence in US assets and even sparked debate about the US #dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency.
Trump #tariffs and his Administration’s pro-business policy:
it’s raining #uncertainty - chart @markets
"Speed beats hesitation. Especially when the path isn't clear." - Futurist Jim Carroll
In a downturn, momentum matters more than perfection. Delay costs more than missteps. The biggest risk isn’t moving too fast—it’s moving too slow while the world speeds up.
And yet, In times of uncertainty, the most natural instinct of all is to wait. Wait for the data. Wait for a signal. Wait until the noise settles, the picture clarifies, and the next steps feel obvious. But here’s what too many leaders forget - the path forward doesn’t get clearer by standing still, it gets clearer by moving.
We are deep into a moment when the cost of indecision is far greater than the cost of action, and the trap of your 'aggressive indecision' becomes more significant every day. I've seen it play out countless times: a moment of economic volatility hits, and leadership teams and people fall into a state in which they decide the easiest decision to make is to simply .... not make them.
It’s not that they don’t care. It’s that they overthink things. They fritter away time in endless meetings. They chase every scenario. They wait for perfect timing. They pause strategic initiatives. They delay customer-facing launches. They stall their momentum—believing they’re being cautious when in reality, they’re just stuck. And so in a world in which the future belongs to those who are fast, they slow down.
And while they stall? Markets shift. Competitors move Talent gets restless. Customers look elsewhere. That's the wrong thing to do - history favors the decisive, and who move at the speed demanded by fast-changing circumstances.
Data backs this up. A comprehensive Harvard Business Review study of 4,700 public companies over three recessions found that the top performers weren’t the ones who paused—they were the ones who acted strategically, quickly, and with confidence. Only 9% of companies outperformed their peers after a downturn—and they did it by balancing discipline with decisive moves at speed. A McKinsey study found the same: companies that moved first and fast during a downturn consistently gained market share during the recovery.
In short? While caution may feel responsible, the real risk lies in hesitation.
Doing nothing often costs far more than doing something imperfectly.
So what should you do? Start moving. Fast. Start moving before you’re ready - simply because you know that speed matters.
----
Futurist Jim Carroll recognizes that moving at speed matters and that with this period of uncertainty set to linger for quite some time, a book to help leaders dance through the rain is timely.
**#Speed** **#Indecision** **#Action** **#Momentum** **#Uncertainty** **#Leadership** **#Strategy** **#Agility** **#Opportunities** **#Progress**
«There is evidence that policy #uncertainty and #inflation uncertainty correlate over time», chart Gov Adriana D. Kugler @federalreserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kugler20250402a.htm
"Uncertainty? Don't wait for clarity —create it!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
In a downturn, experimentation isn’t risky. It’s responsible - because it helps to build some clarity where often that clarity does not yet exist.
That doesn't seem intuitive. In uncertain times, it’s easy to assume that clarity comes from caution - that the path forward will emerge once the noise dies down, once the data stabilizes, and once the market settles.
You end up waiting a long time for that! You end up waiting for clarity that never comes, because here’s the truth: clarity doesn’t arrive. It’s earned.
And the way you earn it—especially in a downturn—is by moving.
Testing. Learning. Iterating. Acting. Trying ideas to see what works. Doing things for the sake of doing, not necessarily for the big win, but to figure out what works, and what does not. And in doing so, you create your sense of clarity. That’s how you cut through the fog. That’s how you avoid paralysis.
That’s how you lead.
Experiments are your edge in an era of uncertainty because they are fuel to ignite clarity that is otherwise missing. Remember what I've said in this series - in times of economic pressure, many organizations retreat into stasis They pause product launches, cancel initiatives, and wait for signals. But the companies that thrive in a downturn do the opposite: They turn uncertainty into a laboratory. They run small tests. They build fast prototypes. They launch controlled rollouts. They create momentum—and clarity—through movement.
That’s not reckless. It’s responsible. And it builds something more valuable than predictions or plans: experiential capital.
Here’s how you start building that advantage now:
- launch a live test. Choose one customer segment. Try something new. Measure real results.
- prototype under pressure. Push a rough idea into the market. Let feedback shape the next version.
- accelerate learning loops. Replace long planning cycles with fast experiments. Learn weekly, not quarterly.
- capture insight. Build a shared learning bank. Don’t waste failure—mine it for gold.
- empower your team to try. Make experimentation safe. Celebrate effort, not just outcomes.
- rush something forward. It doesn’t have to be perfect—just real. Let motion build momentum.
- track what works. Treat every test as a data generator. Use outcomes to refine, redirect, and repeat.
- build a culture of motion. Innovation isn’t a project. It’s a mindset. You build it by doing.
Use urgency as fuel. In the face of hesitation, push forward. Action reveals what planning can’t. Make experiential capital your strategy. In a world that punishes delay, the most learned win..
#Experimentation #Clarity #Action #Testing #Innovation #Momentum #Learning #Strategy #Uncertainty #Adaptation
Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-uncertainty-dont-wait-for-clarity-create-it/
The decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal #tariffs helps reduce risks, but prolonged #uncertainty clouds the #outlook for the US economy, chart @MorganStanley
Embracing #Uncertainty: The Power of #FuzzyLogic in #Decision-Making : Medium
#Physicists Think They’ve Finally Seen #Evidence of #StringTheory : Pop Mech
We’ve #Misunderstood #Uranus all these years — period ($) : Nature
Check our latest #KnowledgeLinks
#IMF cuts growth forecasts for most countries in wake of century-high #US #tariffs
The global #economy will slow sharply this year, weighed down by #Trump’s imposition of the highest import taxes in more than a century & the cloud of #uncertainty that has billowed in their wake, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.
#SellAmerica #doodle
In the run-up to the elections, US President Trump emphatically promised a pro-business policy. A look @BloombergTV shows that never before in recent history has the corporate sector complained so categorically about the continuing #uncertainty in business.
“In the face of uncertainty, most managers cut. But leaders build.” - Futurist Jim Carroll
Anyone can cut costs. Slash and burn. Downsize staff. Close divisions. And in an economic downturn, that becomes the norm.
But there are only a few who can do the opposite - focus on growth.
After nine days of exploring how to lead with resilience, innovation, and momentum, one truth now takes center stage: Growth isn’t a result. It’s a decision.
And in moments of deep uncertainty, the best leaders choose it - on purpose.
Back in 2009, I spoke at a lot of corporate events amid the global economic downturns and witnessed firsthand how different organizations were dealing with it. I vividly remember the message the CEO of one global organization delivered at their leadership summit, sharing their recession roadmap with perfect clarity: “Our strategic priorities: survive, innovate, grow. We’ve done survival. Now we’re focused on building.”
That’s the growth mindset that is needed today. While others pull back, delay projects, freeze spending, and wait for signs of recovery, real leaders are moving forward. Fast. With intent. Because they understand that growth doesn’t happen after the storm passes. It begins now.
Around that time, in an interview with FoodProcessing.com, I shared the story of a global restaurant chain CEO who spoke just after the 2008 financial crisis; I was to follow him on stage for my message on the importance of innovation and looking forward. He opened with one minute on the dismal economic conditions and then spent the next nineteen minutes outlining eight clear growth opportunities.
He didn’t dwell on uncertainty. He obsessed over what came next.
This is how bold leadership sounds.
And in 2025, it’s exactly what’s needed. You might not see it, but this is what is happening in some organizations right now. And maybe it's the precise mindset that you need at this very moment. Right now, some leaders are:
investing with precision — not across-the-board cuts, but selective spending that seeds future wins.
The question isn't: “Will the economy recover?” It's: “Will you be ready when it does?” Or "Will someone else have already captured the ground you hesitated to take?”
So ask yourself: Are you leading from fear? Or building toward growth?
Because in the face of uncertainty, managers cut.
But leaders?
They build.
----
Futurist Jim Carroll knows that history shows us that 10% of organizations become breakthrough performers in times of economic volatility.
**#Growth** **#Leadership** **#Uncertainty** **#Building** **#Innovation** **#Mindset** **#Resilience** **#Opportunity** **#Future** **#Strategy**
Would you want to do business with:
A country that was so #unstable, you couldn't be sure if minimum standards of health and safety were adhered to?
A country so racked with #uncertainty, entire companies and expertise to service and maintain complex products could disappear overnight?
A country so #dysfunctional you'd worry if you sent personnel over to study or work they could randomly be shot at, attacked, arrested?
The world is saying "NO" to America because of #Trump and #Republicans.
"In an enactment of uncertainty, cybernetic technicity forms identities entangled in open futures."
My editorial to the special issue of Constructivist Foundations with selected papers from the 60th Anniversary Meeting of the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) provides an overview of the four thematic conversations.
https://constructivist.info/20/2/067
The editorial can be accessed and downloaded for free.
My last day up, (unexpected) fresh snow, turns out this season has been an excellent 'right now' with all the #professional and #economic / #costs #uncertainty
I am glad I have a situation & boss that made that possible #maxiflex
I hope & trust that you have the some 'distractions' also ....
Sorry for all the twee. 
#fridayfeeling #selfcare #confidence #work
https://www.alojapan.com/1249804/uncertainty-remains-as-japan-us-begin-tariff-talks/ Uncertainty remains as Japan, US begin tariff talks #Japan #JapanNews #news #tariff #trump #uncertainty #us According to a Japanese government source, Trump made uncertain claims, such as that Japan’s trade surplus with the United States is as high as 120 billion dollars and that there are no US-made cars in Japan. It remains unclear what is and is not in the scope of negotiations. Issues such as Japan’s defence spending and …
Greg Cocks 