Before the current travails of #reformuk could be taken into account #electoralcalculus gave #labour a 54% chance of holding the seat. This must now have improved somewhat. However it is never wise to underestimate #labour 's capacity for gratuitous self-harm - the selections of candidates for the #hartlepool and #rochdale byelections being cases in point! It has been reported already that #jonathanashworth may be interested in standing .
@ChrisMayLA6
I agree. The poll cited is by #focaldata - who have an excellent record due not least to #jameskanagasooriam (whose work in #scotland rescued #theresamay in #ukgeneralelection2017 ). #electoralcalculus has produced very similar results to it. Using their open access model suggests that a return of just 3% of voters back to #labour from #reformUK would give #Laɓour a substantial majority. The 3% group is not anti-immigration but expects actual delivery from the #labour government.
@Savvyhomestead not all votes are equal. That's just how the #electoralcollege and its #electoralcalculus works.
