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AnthonyToday I heard an anecdote about the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Monty Hall problem</a>. Apparently Monty Hall himself was once asked his thoughts about the formal version of the problem, and his response was that it was in no way faithful to the game show problem from which it takes its name. Where does the formal version fall short? Monty himself actively tried to mislead the contestant. He knew them, and tried to persuade them. This was a key part of the game. He said the formal model kills all the suspense. It'd be too boring to watch. In other words, Monty Hall operated in a large world and it's in that context the Monty Hall problem is interesting, whereas the formal "Monty Hall problem" chops it down to a small world that is not faithful to the real world version of the problem, and on top of it all is boring. <a href="https://buc.ci?t=ecologicalrationality" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#EcologicalRationality</a> <a href="https://buc.ci?t=largeworlds" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#LargeWorlds</a> <a href="https://buc.ci?t=smallworlds" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#SmallWorlds</a> <a href="https://buc.ci?t=modeling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#modeling</a> <a href="https://buc.ci?t=decisiontheory" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#DecisionTheory</a> <a href="https://buc.ci?t=choicetheory" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ChoiceTheory</a> <a href="https://buc.ci?t=rationalchoicetheory" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#RationalChoiceTheory</a> <a href="https://buc.ci?t=montyhallproblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MontyHallProblem</a>

ƧƿѦςɛ♏ѦਹѤʞ<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/MontyHallProblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MontyHallProblem</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/TrolleyProblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#TrolleyProblem</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/probability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#probability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/meme" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#meme</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#psychology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/maths" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#maths</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/math" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#math</a>

Joe MahoneyIn today's Assorted Nonsense on Substack, what can the Monty Hall Problem tell us about whether Joe Biden should stay in the race? Also a review of Colin Farrell's private eye Sugar on Apple TV, a survey of the book distributor Itasca, and more. Free to subscribe! <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Biden" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Biden</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/MontyHallProblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MontyHallProblem</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/books" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#books</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/publishing" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#publishing</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/newsletter" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#newsletter</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Colinfarrell" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Colinfarrell</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sugar" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sugar</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Itasca" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Itasca</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bookdistribution" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#bookdistribution</a> <a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/mahoneyj/p/joe-biden-and-the-monty-hall-problem?r=1wgmq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://open.substack.com/pub/mahoneyj/p/joe-biden-and-the-monty-hall-problem?r=1wgmq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web</a>

detektor.fm :dfm:Marilyn vos Savant ist Kolumnistin und hat den höchsten IQ der Welt. Sie löst in ihrer Kolumne ein Mathe-Rätsel, das sogenannte Ziegenproblem. Doch mit ihrer Lösung sind viele nicht einverstanden — allen voran viele Mathematiker. Was folgt, ist ein wahrhaftiger Leserbrief-Shitstorm.<a href="https://social.detektor.fm/tags/Mathematik" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Mathematik</a> <a href="https://social.detektor.fm/tags/MontyHallProblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MontyHallProblem</a> <a href="https://social.detektor.fm/tags/R%C3%A4tsel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Rätsel</a> <a href="https://social.detektor.fm/tags/Sexismus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Sexismus</a> <a href="https://social.detektor.fm/tags/Shitstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Shitstorm</a> <a href="https://social.detektor.fm/tags/SpektrumDerWissenschaft" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#SpektrumDerWissenschaft</a> <a href="https://social.detektor.fm/tags/Ziegenproblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Ziegenproblem</a> <a href="https://social.detektor.fm/tags/GeschichtenAusDerMathematik" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#GeschichtenAusDerMathematik</a> <a href="https://detektor.fm/wissen/geschichten-aus-der-mathematik-marilyn-vos-savant?utm_campaign=share_on_mastodon&utm_medium=mastodon&utm_source=mastodon" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://detektor.fm/wissen/geschichten-aus-der-mathematik-marilyn-vos-savant?utm_campaign=share_on_mastodon&utm_medium=mastodon&utm_source=mastodon</a>

Stephan :v_gay:Do you know the <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/MontyHallProblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MontyHallProblem</a>?Let's assume you are in a gameshow, there are three (closed) doors and you are supposed to guess which of these doors has the goat behind it. You choose one door. Next, the host of the game opens one of the remaining two doors which does NOT have a goat behind it. Smiling, he turns to you and asks you: Do you want to stay with your door? Or do you want to switch?The thing is - you should always switch. Because chances for success are 2/3 if you switch the doors, while they are just 1/3 if you stick to your initial hunch.It's one of those problems where I know and understand the maths. And sometimes I even think I grabbed the underlying intuition. But still, I find it very mind-boggling and mind-breaking.

Jim Donegan 🎵 ✅The Simple <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/Question" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Question</a> in <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/Probability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Probability</a> that <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/Stumped" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Stumped</a> Everyone Except Marilyn vos Savant <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOQowCeAnRs&ab_channel=Newsthink" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOQowCeAnRs&ab_channel=Newsthink</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/Statistics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Statistics</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/MontyHall" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MontyHall</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/MontyHallProblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MontyHallProblem</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/TheMontyHallProbkem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#TheMontyHallProbkem</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/Logic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Logic</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/IQ" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#IQ</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/HighIQ" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#HighIQ</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/MarilynVosSavant" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MarilynVosSavant</a> <a href="https://mastodon.scot/tags/MarilynSavant" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MarilynSavant</a>

YAKgetting a lottery ticket and then erasing one of the numbers to improve my odds of winning <a href="https://honey.town/tags/MontyHallProblem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MontyHallProblem</a>

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