Miguel Afonso Caetano<p><a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AI</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/AGI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AGI</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/ExistentialRisk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ExistentialRisk</span></a> <a href="https://tldr.nettime.org/tags/HumanExtinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>HumanExtinction</span></a>: "How seriously should governments take the threat of existential risk from AI, given the lack of consensus among researchers? On the one hand, existential risks (x-risks) are necessarily somewhat speculative: by the time there is concrete evidence, it may be too late. On the other hand, governments must prioritize — after all, they don’t worry too much about x-risk from alien invasions.</p><p>This is the first in a series of essays laying out an evidence-based approach for policymakers concerned about AI x-risk, an approach that stays grounded in reality while acknowledging that there are “unknown unknowns”. </p><p>In this first essay, we look at one type of evidence: probability estimates. The AI safety community relies heavily on forecasting the probability of human extinction due to AI (in a given timeframe) in order to inform decision making and policy. An estimate of 10% over a few decades, for example, would obviously be high enough for the issue to be a top priority for society. </p><p>Our central claim is that AI x-risk forecasts are far too unreliable to be useful for policy, and in fact highly misleading."</p><p><a href="https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-existential-risk-probabilities" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-existentia</span><span class="invisible">l-risk-probabilities</span></a></p>