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How do you feel about prediction markets?
@evan I feel like starting one called "Young's slits" - the act of observing then can change the results.
@dneary yeah that is not a good name, Dave
@evan It is not! My roundabout point is that I feel like prediction markets, by betting on electoral events, can end up influencing those events (similar to how poll aggregator sites like FiveThirtyEight ended up being news). Or, in other words, that the act of observing the event (photon streams being shot at Young's slits) can change the outcome (behavior of said photons).
@dneary @evan A close relative of prediction markets is incentivization markets which are intended to do that—change and not just predict behavior. (imho it's time for another look at prediction/incentivization markets, because ML. ML is expensive to check against the real world, markets need persistent noisy traders to profit from, they solve some of each other's problems https://blog.zgp.org/money-bots-talk/ )
