Actuaries surround Bayes' grave
The Dutch football league has a "match controversy" prediction algorithm which it uses to assign referees: the more contentious the match (teams / crowds), the better the referee they assign.
"If there were machines which bore a resemblance to our body and imitated our actions... we should always have two very certain tests by which to recognise that, for all that, they were not real men. The first is, that they could never use speech... But it never happens that [a machine] arranges its speech in various ways, in order to reply appropriately to everything that may be said in its presence, as even the lowest type of man can do. "
- Descartes inventing the Turing test (1637)
alternatives for "data scientist":
"machine learning engineer"
"Sexy S. Sexington*"
"really really really big data analyst"
"makes pretty pictures about the money"
"statistician sans shame"
"driving the SAS out of Ireland"
"chlorine in the data lake"
"the corporate equivalent of 'I Fucking Love Science'"
^ We maybe shouldn't use this word, since the Fisherian and Neyman-Pearsonian are very different and deserve different levels of disdain.
Schools, philosophies, factions:
To what extent is ML a fourth school, as opposed to a mere toolkit, shut up and descend the gradient?
(Image: Greg Ganderberger)
"...to be productive at a commercial level in any language these days is about knowing your way around the ecosystem, libraries, tooling etc, and that takes a significant investment of time, and the knowledge is highly perishable.
3-4 languages is probably the most it’s reasonable to maintain and to claim as an actual skill."
- HN random
More obscene riches coming:
* Deb Mayo healing the statistical divide https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Inference-Severe-Testing-Statistics/dp/1107664640/
* Anders Sandberg and Toby Ord’s on humanity's possible Grand Futures
* Toby Ord and Will MacAskill on subsuming moral divides
A: "So what? They're still good!"
B: "Certainly. But now we can derive policy. It costs about $3.2m to build a library.** The malaria charity AMF can distribute 750,000 nets for that, saving around a thousand lives.*** So a new library is > 280,000 x less effective than our best effort."
A: "Ugh. Dyou really think people closing libraries are likely to give out bednets?"
B: "In general no. But atm we're talking to each other, not them."
A: "Libraries are the foundation of democratic society. Closing them is tantamount to child abuse."
B: "Carnegie killed more than 9 people and built 2,500 libraries. That's 280 libraries per murder. Was this a good deal?" *
A: "No! How can you ask such a question? They're not comparable!"
B: "If they aren't comparable how do you know murder's worse than closing libraries?"
A: "Look, obviously murder's worse."
B: "OK. So we know 280 libraries is not worth a life."
[Interpolated interviewer]: "Your fiction has been called dry and cerebral. What role does emotion have to you?"
Szilard: "I am emotionally moved by extraordinary reasoning."
I never liked ego depletion, one of the big casualties of the psych replication crisis.^ It doesn't fit with my own sense of (unalienated) mental effort as **energising**.
(A study^^ has found this reverse ego-depletion in Indian participants. But the p-hack taint is on all such research now, and I won't endorse it just because it suits me.)
Obvious in retrospect:
'Epistemic internalism' is the demand that only white-box things be called knowledge.
Known, practical side-channels in air-gapped computers:
* FM radio
* (Including key extraction ofc)
* Near-field magnetism
* LEDs ffs!
* Patterns of temperature https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7243739/
Being in a punk band is not a hero license.* It is the denial that licenses are needed, and sometimes the denial that there are heroes.
What else is like this, refusing to play status games? (Or maybe: flipping the table and playing on the underside.)
* Coinage buried in here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dhj9dhiwhq3DX6W8z/hero-licensing
And which gets angry if you call it a black-box.