Thinking out loud ...

People are saying the mortality rate of COVID-19 is ~ 1%. Roughly the number of cases trebles every 5 days, or roughly by 10 every 10 days.

Time from infection to death is ~3 weeks, say 20 days.

So ...

In the UK there've been 10 deaths. At 1%, that means 1000 people had the virus 20 days ago. It's multiplied by 10 twice since then. On that basis ...

The current number of infected people in the UK right now, detected & undetected, is ~ 100K.


To those replying (elsewhere) that it cannot remain exponential because we'll run out of people, it only starts to deviate significantly from the exponential when we have overwhelmingly many cases.

So the point stands:


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@ColinTheMathmo Exactly, and a point othees (notably #AdamKucharski, "The Rules of Contagion") have been making for days.

I've got a basic awk script that models global (ex-China) and US spread:

(The corrected output is in comments, the post itself is too conservative.)

@dredmorbius The problem is that in a length, discussion-format article, people simply won't read it. And if you have any degree of nuance, people won't follow the argument.

My post was intended to be blunt, brutal, direct, and the basis for discussion.

And yes, I accept that we are in *complete* agreement.

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